FullofBullets

Exactly. It's all about staying alive, regardless of the buy-in. I just don't like flipping coins preflop unless my stack size warrants it. Our stack is fine compared to the blinds. And - I've seen overcast play tourneys, he is much too strong to take flips at this point of a tourney where he could possibly be dominated.

There are better ways to run up a stack. I hate playing preflop poker in NL hold'em unless I have aces, kings or a small stack.

10 of Diamonds

I've been playing SNG only for the last while and I have to agree that staying alive is the key to see any profit. There isn't too much room for creativity at the early stage, the blinds are just too small to make any attempt to steal. I try to avoid big pots early unless I have the nuts or something really close to it. It's around the bubble I'd start to make steal attempts because of I have the tight image and everyone is super conservative when they are close of being eliminated with nothing.

For the first hand I am leaning towards folding. UTG limped and a huge raiser after. The best case is a coin flip with the raiser. If UTG calls then TT is in terrible shape. Hand 2 I'd push with any decent hand, 56 suited is one of them.

cuse522

After doing the math, I think a push with TT is the right play... Even if he only calls with AK, AQ, and pairs TT+, it's a +EV play.. I think some players look us up here w/ 88 or 99, thus making it even more +EV..

Here's the math:

If he is raising 77-AA, AJ-AK...
18 ways to make 77-99
1 to make TT
24 to make AA-JJ
16 each for AJ, AQ, AK..

Villain's Actions:
Fold (77-99, AJ) - 34 * +1125=38,250
Call (AK, AQ) - 32 * +436 = 13,952
Call (JJ-AA) - 24 * -1957 = -46,968
Call (TT) - 1 * 113 = 113
Total: +5,347
Divided by 91 = Avg return of +59 chips..

But, I think some players could be raising 55 or 66, or even any pair here.. Some might be raising AT or KQ.. And some might even be calling us with 77-99 or AJ.. If we just add a call of 99 and AJ in...

Fold (77, 88) - 12 * +1125 = 13,500
Call (AK, AQ, AJ) - 48 * +436 = 20,928
Call (99) - 6 * +5302 = 31,812
Call (JJ-AA) - 24 * -1957 = -46,968
Call (TT) - 1 * 113 = 113
Total: +19,385
Divided by 91 = Avg return of +213 chips

I think any great tournament player will tell you not to pass up ANY +EV situation (if you don't believe me, I'll get a quote from Lindgren's book or from Raymer on 2p2).. But with 13M, I think it's a spot where we should take this chance. I've never done all the math in ICM, but if someone is interested in doing it, I bet this is a +$EV move to make as well. Once we pay our blinds and they go up, we're down below 10M (3121-225 = 2896/300 = 9.6M)...