Hey does anyone know the exact odds on hitting your 4-flush with 2 cards to come? I thought it was 9/47 + 9/46, 18/46.5, 39%? This guy at my casino keeps quoting Sklansky lol and saying it's 35%. I need to get my facts str8 : )

According to the 2/4 rule from the LittleGreenBook, you are suppose to multiply your outs by 4 on the flop, or by 2 on the turn to get the %.

But your math is definitely more correct.

The 2/4 rule is just for quick estimates...

Outs * 2 * streets remaining for approx. odds if you only need 1 card...

If you need runner-runner...

Outs * 2 for the approx odds of hitting the first card you need. So, if you need running cards for a flush, it's approximately 18% that you'll hit one of your suit on the turn. Then, if you do hit it, it's approximately 16% that the river will also be that suit.

So, 16% of 18%, or just under 3%.

Oops...misread.

If you have 4 cards to a flush, and only need to hit 1 more to make the flush...

It's 9/47 (approximately 18%, actually 19.1%) to hit it on the turn, and if you miss, it's 9/46 (approximately 18%, actually 19.5%) to hit it on the river. So, with 2 cards to come, if you have a 4-flush, you're 38.6% to hit it...assuming your opponents hold no cards of your suits.

Realize though, you need better than 2-to-3 pot odds to call a flop bet, because you're probably going to have to call another bet on the turn if you miss. You need about 4-to-1 pot odds to justify calling a flush draw on the flop.

If your opponent has one card of your suit, you're 32.7% to hit the flush.

Yeah cheers for confirming that pogo. I showed him that math and he told me my math was wrong and how could I argue with what was written in the book he read (I think he must have mis-remembered it?). I asked him if he could add fractions and he said he isn't into math... I tell you what these guys at Auckland casino are unbelievable. This one ring leader guy (english punk with a tatoo of 'whatever' covering his forearm looooooooooool) actually BRINGS HIS COPY OF HOLDEM POKER FOR ADVANCED PLAYERS INTO THE POKER PIT and proceeds to tell everyone how to play properly.

It's unbelievable. There is a whole bunch of them that have this idea they are very good. I guess they are good compared to the average player there (awful) but there are heaps of mistakes they are making. I'm taking a break from online MTTs to just play the $1/$2 cash game there for awhile because the value is so huge.

I'm taking a break from online MTTs to just play the $1/$2 cash game there for awhile because the value is so huge.
Haha, and I'm taking a break from the $1/$2 cash game at the casino to play online, because I don't have the bankroll to keep getting sucked out on.

I like that I'm getting called by 2-outers...but my bankroll doesn't like that they're hitting.

I remember Sklansky writing about this, saying that people commonly do the math wrong--but I can't remember the specifics, because I see no practical difference between 35% and 38%.

(I think Sklansky was saying that many people mistake "9 outs twice" for "18 outs once", but that these two things were not the same.)

(I think Sklansky was saying that many people mistake "9 outs twice" for "18 outs once", but that these two things were not the same.)
Usually not. Unless you or your opponent will have no more chips to bet with on the turn, or if your opponent has a bad habit of giving you a free river so it is unlikely that you will have to call another bet on the turn. In those cases, "9 outs twice" and "18 outs once" are the same for all practical purposes.

Yeah cheers for confirming that pogo. I showed him that math and he told me my math was wrong and how could I argue with what was written in the book he read (I think he must have mis-remembered it?). I asked him if he could add fractions and he said he isn't into math... I tell you what these guys at Auckland casino are unbelievable. This one ring leader guy (english punk with a tatoo of 'whatever' covering his forearm looooooooooool) actually BRINGS HIS COPY OF HOLDEM POKER FOR ADVANCED PLAYERS INTO THE POKER PIT and proceeds to tell everyone how to play properly.

It's unbelievable. There is a whole bunch of them that have this idea they are very good. I guess they are good compared to the average player there (awful) but there are heaps of mistakes they are making. I'm taking a break from online MTTs to just play the $1/$2 cash game there for awhile because the value is so huge.

You could use that to your advantage then. Make some chatter with him and make him think you really love that book and are aware how to play based on that book. (if you've read it of course). And if you see he is playing based on that book, then you should be able to get good read based on the fact you know how the book plays too.

I always try to this ignore this "3x%" figure when I have a flush draw. As you said it's approx. 19% on the turn and on the river. Most of the time the "3x%"
is a trap.

Oops...misread.

If you have 4 cards to a flush, and only need to hit 1 more to make the flush...

It's 9/47 (approximately 18%, actually 19.1%) to hit it on the turn, and if you miss, it's 9/46 (approximately 18%, actually 19.5%) to hit it on the river. So, with 2 cards to come, if you have a 4-flush, you're 38.6% to hit it...assuming your opponents hold no cards of your suits.

Realize though, you need better than 2-to-3 pot odds to call a flop bet, because you're probably going to have to call another bet on the turn if you miss. You need about 4-to-1 pot odds to justify calling a flush draw on the flop.

If your opponent has one card of your suit, you're 32.7% to hit the flush.

I always try to this ignore this "3x%" figure when I have a flush draw. As you said it's approx. 19% on the turn and on the river. Most of the time the "3x%"
is a trap.
I always ignore it too, unless I absolutely 100% know that I won't have to call another bet on the turn. Additionally, if there are good implied odds if you do hit (your opponent will call a big raise if you hit and you know you have the best hand), that might occasionally justify ignoring the 19%.

The 38% is usually good to ignore, but not always. Whatever you do, don't get in the habit of calling flush draws on the flop because you have the correct pot odds for 38% and then calling another bet on the turn because you have 19%. If you do this, you're giving yourself 3-to-1 pot odds when you need 4-to-1.