Bobby C
When I was booking in Las Vegas, my boss Ed and I would constantly disagree about something very fundamental when making NFL pointspreads--the value of home-field advantage.
He's from the "Home-ice = 3 points" school. I staunchly disagree with this.
In my opinion, teams like Denver and Kansas City should be handicapped much, much more than three points when playing at home. The advantage they enjoy at home is manifest. "Green Bay in the winter" can also go on this list, as well as the Rams' "Greatest Show on Turf" era. I mean, it's obvious that these teams enjoy a greater home-ice advantage than the average team. Isn't it???
On the other hand, teams like Cincinnati and New Orleans have never played any better at home than they have on the road. When your fans are booing and wearing bags over their heads, it's not a motivational environment. Cincy's practice facility is next to a stinky swamp. It's not a happy place to be. Granted, it's gotten much better since the arrival of Marvin Lewis and Carson Palmer--but they still have a better record on the road, as opposed to at home, this season AND last season.
Guess who's playing each other today? Yup, it's those two star-crossed franchises, Bengals at Saints! Guess what the line is? Yup, home team -3.
I don't see any reason why the Saints should be favored in this game. Certainly not "home field advantage:
Saints 2006: 3-1 home, 3-2 road
Saints 2005: 1-7 home, 2-6 road
Saints 2004: 3-5 home, 5-3 road
3-year total: 7-13 home, 10-11 road
Bengals 2006: 2-3 home, 2-2 road
Bengals 2005: 5-3 home, 6-2 road
Bengals 2004: 5-3 home, 3-5 road
3-year total: 12-9 home, 11-9 road
Neither team is significantly better at home. In fact, the Saints are significantly WORSE at home.
(oops, I spent so much time typing this, the game kicked off. Well, I'm posting it any how. I'm not wasting all that typing.)
He's from the "Home-ice = 3 points" school. I staunchly disagree with this.
In my opinion, teams like Denver and Kansas City should be handicapped much, much more than three points when playing at home. The advantage they enjoy at home is manifest. "Green Bay in the winter" can also go on this list, as well as the Rams' "Greatest Show on Turf" era. I mean, it's obvious that these teams enjoy a greater home-ice advantage than the average team. Isn't it???
On the other hand, teams like Cincinnati and New Orleans have never played any better at home than they have on the road. When your fans are booing and wearing bags over their heads, it's not a motivational environment. Cincy's practice facility is next to a stinky swamp. It's not a happy place to be. Granted, it's gotten much better since the arrival of Marvin Lewis and Carson Palmer--but they still have a better record on the road, as opposed to at home, this season AND last season.
Guess who's playing each other today? Yup, it's those two star-crossed franchises, Bengals at Saints! Guess what the line is? Yup, home team -3.
I don't see any reason why the Saints should be favored in this game. Certainly not "home field advantage:
Saints 2006: 3-1 home, 3-2 road
Saints 2005: 1-7 home, 2-6 road
Saints 2004: 3-5 home, 5-3 road
3-year total: 7-13 home, 10-11 road
Bengals 2006: 2-3 home, 2-2 road
Bengals 2005: 5-3 home, 6-2 road
Bengals 2004: 5-3 home, 3-5 road
3-year total: 12-9 home, 11-9 road
Neither team is significantly better at home. In fact, the Saints are significantly WORSE at home.
(oops, I spent so much time typing this, the game kicked off. Well, I'm posting it any how. I'm not wasting all that typing.)