View Thread : A rare NFL pick, and amusing Bodog story


Bobby C
When I was booking in Las Vegas, my boss Ed and I would constantly disagree about something very fundamental when making NFL pointspreads--the value of home-field advantage.

He's from the "Home-ice = 3 points" school. I staunchly disagree with this.

In my opinion, teams like Denver and Kansas City should be handicapped much, much more than three points when playing at home. The advantage they enjoy at home is manifest. "Green Bay in the winter" can also go on this list, as well as the Rams' "Greatest Show on Turf" era. I mean, it's obvious that these teams enjoy a greater home-ice advantage than the average team. Isn't it???

On the other hand, teams like Cincinnati and New Orleans have never played any better at home than they have on the road. When your fans are booing and wearing bags over their heads, it's not a motivational environment. Cincy's practice facility is next to a stinky swamp. It's not a happy place to be. Granted, it's gotten much better since the arrival of Marvin Lewis and Carson Palmer--but they still have a better record on the road, as opposed to at home, this season AND last season.

Guess who's playing each other today? Yup, it's those two star-crossed franchises, Bengals at Saints! Guess what the line is? Yup, home team -3.

I don't see any reason why the Saints should be favored in this game. Certainly not "home field advantage:

Saints 2006: 3-1 home, 3-2 road
Saints 2005: 1-7 home, 2-6 road
Saints 2004: 3-5 home, 5-3 road
3-year total: 7-13 home, 10-11 road

Bengals 2006: 2-3 home, 2-2 road
Bengals 2005: 5-3 home, 6-2 road
Bengals 2004: 5-3 home, 3-5 road
3-year total: 12-9 home, 11-9 road

Neither team is significantly better at home. In fact, the Saints are significantly WORSE at home.

(oops, I spent so much time typing this, the game kicked off. Well, I'm posting it any how. I'm not wasting all that typing.)

Bobby C
Oh yeah, BoDog story:

BoDog was nice enough to buy BetCorp. Remember me crying last month about BetHold'em shutting down with my money? Well, my patience has been rewarded, and BoDog made good on it. So now I have a BoDog account.

They had the following prop:

Number of the winning car in the Ford 400:
Over 23½ +135
Under 23½ -165

IMO, the five most likely winners are under 23; 8 of the top 12; and 11 of the top 16.

I laid $165 to win $100.

I little while later, I checked to see if a $100 bet is enough to move the line at BoDog. I chuckled at what they moved it to:

Over 23½ +130
Under 23½ -170

I don't think the new number will attract much betting on the other side. :)

checkthestack
Bobby the thing you have to remember about NO is that they didn't play a home game last year. They even played a home game against the Giants in Giants stadium. I think they were playing their home games in San Antonio.

But the rest holds water. But I still think New Orleans will win and cover. The Bengals are just struggling this year.

Bobby C
Good point about the Saints' "home games" last season.

But I've been saying that about the Saints and Bengals (and Broncos, Chiefs, and Packers) for 20 years now.

Damn Chiefs cost me a 4-teamer. :(

Current top ten in the Nascar race, after about 100 laps of 267:

9
16
5
38 (I'm not worried about this guy EVER winning a race)
17
8
10
48 (Trying to win the season title today, super-cautious, doesn't need a win)
18
1

How's my under 23½ looking?

Bobby C
How's my under 23½ looking?

The "under 23½" cars swept the top 5. :)